Determining the future demand for senior housing and care varies significantly when looking at the over 80 market as compared to the over 75 segment - both now and in the longer term.
Healthier lifestyles and advances in medicine have resulted in increasing life expectancies, a reality that is being felt in older the adults housing and care industry with increasingly higher average age of residents. This increase in average age is based on informal surveys, specific market studies and discussions with major providers.
Using data from surveys completed in 1998, when the average age of residents in retirement homes was 82 and 85 in long term care, and simply adding the increase in life span, results in an average age of 84 and 87 years respectively by 2013. Our surveys at that time indicated that a number of persons under the age of 75 are living in these residences, we expect that this has likely also decreased since then.
While the industry has traditionally looked at the over 75 segment in most of its research, Care Planning Partners believes that this approach is now outdated.
In determining the future need, we have assumed that today’s supply of retirement and long term care homes is a proxy for measuring future demand.
We therefore compared the current levels of supply, based on our knowledge of the industry across Canada, to both the segments over the age of 75 and to the over 80 segment, and compared populations to actual 2011 Census data and recent Statistics Canada projections to 2036.
The total need for long term care by 2036 ranges from 274,000 for the+75 to 305,000 for those over 80, from the current 195,500 units.
The retirement home need by 2036 ranges from 290,000 for the+75 to 320,000 for those over 80, from the current 202,000 units.
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